Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.523733 25.258643 29.829045 35.966066 44.210938 5.525893e+01 71.868339
2025-01-05 16.552718 20.599195 26.046411 34.269058 47.099683 6.792745e+01 108.749609
2025-01-12 13.506572 17.362021 22.841004 31.715861 46.977054 7.540018e+01 144.846470
2025-01-19 11.563423 15.203049 20.577593 29.746688 46.745560 8.225209e+01 189.202781
2025-01-26 11.551125 15.767668 22.413541 34.845493 61.421792 1.320606e+02 500.772461
2025-02-02 11.001796 15.402292 22.656560 37.160902 71.806073 1.859365e+02 1398.634941
2025-02-09 9.928027 14.052329 20.986819 35.276176 71.255738 2.038692e+02 2621.912235
2025-02-16 9.504726 13.706125 21.013774 36.893138 80.949302 2.849628e+02 38114.690104
2025-02-23 8.970323 13.106591 20.477178 37.129894 86.925465 3.685482e+02 NaN
2025-03-02 8.470751 12.512450 19.862107 37.031390 91.923946 4.714556e+02 NaN
2025-03-09 8.098913 12.103302 19.545894 37.582549 99.847318 6.604851e+02 NaN
2025-03-16 7.555846 11.342239 18.439212 35.887516 98.019876 7.285821e+02 NaN
2025-03-23 7.172553 10.870230 17.927788 35.832647 104.197614 1.044684e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 6.686966 10.176016 16.887799 34.151329 102.176562 1.197343e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 6.177322 9.403933 15.615263 31.611498 94.825081 1.128051e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 5.759484 8.777658 14.600190 29.651917 89.656859 1.117507e+03 NaN
2025-04-20 5.920837 9.237772 15.933655 34.725377 126.480636 8.939447e+03 NaN
2025-04-27 5.848629 9.246333 16.285373 37.028633 152.727957 4.963534e+08 NaN
2025-05-04 5.523818 8.740502 15.416106 35.153829 146.289379 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.429031 8.680148 15.567726 36.762294 171.034140 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.263332 8.466923 15.337485 36.997790 185.003175 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.092274 8.232060 15.032566 36.899811 196.247947 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 4.964689 8.077227 14.906272 37.448025 217.041514 NaN NaN